Recession News & Analysis

S&P 500 Down 6%, Nasdaq Correction as Recession Odds Rise to 49%

The S&P 500 has declined more than 6% in the past month, while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 10% from its peak earlier in 2026. Goldman Sachs has forecasted a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year, a rise from a previous 25% prediction. Moody's model estimates the likelihood at 49%, potentially exceeding 50% if oil prices continue to rise. Additionally, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is currently close to 40, significantly above the long-term average of 17, indicating potential market overvaluation.