PCE News & Analysis
4 articles
Market Mood
Fed's Goolsbee Comments on Latest 3.5% Inflation Data Impact
The Chicago Fed President, Austan Goolsbee, stated that recent inflation data, showing a 3.5% annual rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for March, indicates challenges for the Federal Reserve (FederalReserve). He emphasized that the Fed must exercise caution regarding rate cuts until inflation trends down towards the 2% target. The Fed's policy rate remains steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, following an 8-4 vote, the most divided since 1992. Goolsbee's remarks underscore concerns that rising inflation could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
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Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing Signals No Rate Cuts for 2026
During his confirmation hearing, Kevin Warsh stated there was no commitment to interest rate cuts from the White House. The CME FedWatch tool indicates only one rate cut is predicted for 2026, contrary to the market's expectation of three. Currently, the Fed funds upper bound is at 3.75%, and core PCE gains are running at 0.4%. Economists predict rates to remain steady through September, suggesting that investors should favor quality over speculation, particularly if future cash flows are discounted based on fewer anticipated rate cuts.
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Kevin Warsh Suggests New Inflation Metrics Amid Federal Reserve Hearing
Kevin Warsh, nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, suggested a new approach to inflation measurement that includes 'trimmed averages'. Bank of America reported that this new method could yield a 12-month inflation mean of 2.3% and a median of 2.8% as of February, compared to the core PCE at 3%. This change could impact Fed policy by possibly increasing the significance of food and energy prices, which are currently excluded from the core PCE calculation. Warsh emphasized that he is focused on identifying the underlying inflation rate, raising concerns about potential shifts in Fed strategy that may contradict his goals.
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Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75%, PCE Inflation Outlook Raised to 2.7%
The Federal Reserve's FOMC maintained the Fed Funds Rate at 3.5%-3.75% as of March 2026. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast for 2026 has been increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, while the core PCE outlook also rose from 2.5% to 2.7%. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.4% annualized increase in producers' overall input costs for February, the highest since February of the previous year. The Fed anticipates a potential rate cut of 0.25% this year, contingent upon economic performance.
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