ConsumerPriceIndex News & Analysis

Inflation Predicted to Peak at 3.6% in September 2026

Prediction market platform Kalshi forecasts that inflation has likely peaked for 2026 but expects it to remain elevated. The September consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to show a 3.6% increase year over year, aligning with FactSet estimates and marking a rise from August's 3.4%. These figures suggest a stabilization around a higher inflation rate compared to previous peaks, such as the 4.2% noted in May 2026. Additionally, contracts on Kalshi place a one-in-three chance of inflation reaching new highs within the year, with official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to confirm outcomes. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain steady at 2.4%, in line with economists' predictions. Despite this steadiness, there's only a 6% chance of core inflation falling below 2.2% this year, a level not seen since before the inflation surge starting in 2021. For ordinary investors, the prediction of sustained inflationary pressure can inform decisions in sectors vulnerable to inflation or those that benefit from it, as it affects purchasing power and interest rates.