Brexit News & Analysis
5 articles
Market Mood
Gibraltar Border Controls Removed After 118 Years: Major Change
On July 15, Gibraltar will remove its border controls with Spain, ending an 118-year arrangement. This change is expected to improve economic conditions in La Línea de la Concepción, where unemployment is nearly 30%. Local businesses rely on Gibraltar for about one-third of their income. The initiative follows negotiations between the EU and the UK post-Brexit, aiming to facilitate movement of the approximately 15,000 Spaniards who commute daily. This matters for investors as increased economic activity may enhance business performance in the region.
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UK Exports Drop 26% Due to Brexit Impact on Companies
After Brexit, UK exports have seen a notable decline, with a 26% reduction in different types of exports by 2023, according to the UK Trade Policy Observatory. A study from Aston University Business School indicates a loss of 53.8% in certain export varieties and a 31.5% drop for imports. Phil Ward, CEO of Eskimo, noted that in 2020, 40% of his exports went to the EU, but this figure decreased to 5% by 2025 due to increased red tape. This trend reflects broader economic challenges post-Brexit, impacting trade dynamics significantly for UK businesses.
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Brexit Impact: UK GDP Forecasted to Drop 6-8% by 2025
The Brexit referendum that took place on June 23, 2016, resulted in a 52% to 48% vote to leave the EU, leading to significant economic changes. By 2025, Brexit is expected to reduce the U.K.'s GDP by 6-8%, as estimated by Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom. Since the vote, the value of the pound has remained approximately 10% below its June 2016 levels, with GBP/EUR averaging €1.16 post-referendum. Additionally, EU net migration turned negative in 2022, indicating changing immigration patterns since the U.K. exited the EU.
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UK Economy Declines 6% Post-Brexit, Bank of England Data Reveals
The UK economy has experienced a 6% contraction attributed to Brexit, based on an analysis of internal Bank of England data. Key findings suggest that half of this economic impact stems from uncertainty following the referendum, while the remainder is linked to increased trade barriers after the UK exited the EU's customs union and single market in 2021. Notably, the study posits that the UK's economic trajectory prior to Brexit was strong, with potential growth lost due to these disruptions. The Bank of England's governor acknowledged lower levels of activity and growth resulting from Brexit decisions, which continue to be analyzed a decade post-referendum.
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UK Strikes £3.7bn Trade Deal with Gulf Cooperation Council States
The UK has finalized a trade deal anticipated to be worth £3.7bn with six Gulf states: Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This agreement is expected to eliminate £580m annually in tariffs on British exports, including products like cheddar cheese and chocolate. The trade deal is presented as a significant opportunity for British firms to expand in the Gulf, potentially supporting job growth. Critics, however, have raised concerns regarding human rights and labor protections associated with the agreement, highlighting the need for more details.
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