Brent Crude Reaches $115 Amid Middle East Tensions: Oil Supply Challenges

Brent crude oil prices reached $115 before settling around $109, marking a 50% increase since the onset of the conflict on February 28, 2026, and up from $69 in early February. Predictions indicate a 6% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31, rising to 31% by the end of April and 52% by the end of June. Simultaneously, a 20-plus dollar discount of U.S. crude to Brent is reported, while physical crude in Oman exceeds $150 per barrel. This escalation and ongoing tensions have significant implications for global oil supply and prices, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, impacting a significant portion of global oil trade.