U.S. Dollar Rebounds 4% Amid Cooling Oil Prices and Fed Poll Results

The U.S. dollar has rebounded approximately 4% from its May lows, supported by inflation levels above target and elevated Treasury yields. In a recent Reuters poll, nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers anticipate interest rate hikes this year, leading to market expectations of almost two hikes by year-end. Despite the rebound, a majority of FX strategists predict the dollar will weaken, with forecasts indicating the euro might rise 2% to $1.16 by the end of September. Additionally, a strong majority of survey respondents believe current long positions will hold or increase by the end of July.