U.S. Auto Market Sales Forecast Declines by 2 Million by 2040

Analysts from Bain & Company forecast a decline in U.S. auto sales by over 2 million units by 2040, potentially resetting annual sales below 15.6 million. Contributing factors include falling birth rates with a U.S. fertility rate projected at 1.6 births per woman in 2025, and changing consumer behavior, with new vehicle registrations among those aged 18 to 34 dropping from 12% to under 10% since 2021. Additionally, monthly payments for new vehicles increased by 30% over the past four years, with nearly 20% of new vehicles having payment plans exceeding $1,000. This shift suggests fierce competition among automakers for a shrinking consumer base, impacting market dynamics significantly.