IMF warns of recession risks amid US-Iran conflict and oil price spikes

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran may push global growth below 2% by 2026, risking a recession. They cite a worst-case scenario where oil prices could average $110 per barrel this year and reach $125 in 2027, potentially driving inflation up to 6%. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed that short-term economic impacts are outweighed by the need for long-term security regarding the Iranian nuclear threat. Currently, Iran has uranium enriched to 60%, with no existing nuclear weapon, creating ongoing geopolitical tension.

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