Federal Reserve Likely to Hike Rates 0.25% Amid Inflation Concerns

Traders now see over a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its overnight funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 3.75%-4%. This potential hike would be the first since July 2023 after the FOMC reduced rates six times for a total of 175 basis points since then. Morgan Stanley economists revised their forecast from no hikes to two, anticipating one this week and another in December. A significant factor includes the rise in crude oil prices above $100, impacting inflation expectations, which is crucial for ordinary investors to consider.