Fed Survey: 93% Expect No Rate Hike in October, 76% See Hike in December

A CNBC survey of 30 fund managers, strategists, and economists shows that 93% expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause interest rate hikes at its October meeting. However, 76% anticipate a rate increase at the December meeting, with more than half predicting around two rate hikes next year.

The survey reveals a range of views on the economy and inflation. Forty percent say the Fed must slow growth below potential to address inflation, while 27% see no need to slow the economy and 23% think only slight slowing is necessary. Seventy percent view inflation as a broader issue than energy prices alone. The U.S. crude oil price is expected at $88 a barrel six months from now, up from $82 in September but below the current $101.

Economic growth forecasts remain above potential, with GDP predicted at 2.4% for this year and 2.2% for 2027. The risk of a U.S. recession next year is estimated at 26%, down from 29% in the previous survey. The S&P 500 index outlook holds steady at about 7,600 for this year but declines slightly for next year from 8,274 to 8,033. Unemployment is expected to remain steady.

This matters for investors because the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate hikes directly influences borrowing costs and financial markets. The strong consensus for a pause in October but hikes later indicates a cautious Fed stance amid persistent inflation and economic growth above potential.