American Airlines (AAL) Forecasts Full-Year Loss of $1 to $1.60 per Share in 2026

Published on 10/22/2026 · Source: cnbc.com

AI Summary

Summarized by AI from the source below

American Airlines (AAL) projects a larger adjusted full-year loss ranging between $1 and $1.60 per share for 2026, compared to its prior forecast of earnings up to 65 cents per share or a loss as low as 65 cents per share in July. The company plans to slow its capacity growth next year in response to rising fuel costs. In premarket trading, American's stock declined about 4% following this announcement.

In the third quarter, American Airlines reported a net loss of $269 million, or 41 cents per share, compared with a $114 million loss or 17 cents per share a year earlier. Adjusted loss per share was 28 cents, slightly better than the expected 35 cents. Revenue for the quarter increased 19.3% year-over-year to $16.34 billion, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $16.22 billion. However, fuel expenses rose sharply by 67.5% year-over-year to $4.64 billion, driven by a spike in jet fuel prices linked to the Iran war.

American expects a fourth-quarter adjusted loss between 50 cents and $1.10 per share, with revenue up as much as 22.5% and capacity growth between 5.5% and 6.5% from last year. The airline is the fourth major U.S. carrier to lower its 2026 outlook due to elevated fuel costs, following Delta, United, and Southwest airlines. The sharp rise in jet fuel has pressured profitability despite record revenue growth.

This matters for investors as American Airlines' ability to manage fuel costs and slow capacity growth will influence its profitability and stock performance. The forecasted deeper losses highlight the challenge of sustaining earnings amid rising operational costs, particularly fuel which is the largest expense after labor.

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Our take

Opinion from the Newsstocks AI desk, not investment advice

We think American Airlines' increased loss forecast reflects elevated fuel costs offsetting strong revenue growth. The company's strategy to slow capacity growth may moderate losses but rising expenses remain a clear risk. The facts lean bearish due to higher costs and deeper losses, unless fuel prices decrease or revenue growth accelerates more than expected.

Key numbers

2026 adjusted loss per share forecast: $1 to $1.60
July 2026 forecast range: 65 cents earnings to 65 cents loss
Third quarter revenue: $16.34 billion
Third quarter adjusted loss per share: 28 cents

What could help

Record revenue and double-digit revenue growth support potential for improving earnings.
Planned slower capacity growth could help reduce operational losses next year.

What could hurt

Persistently high jet fuel prices raise costs significantly and pressure profit margins.
Other major U.S. airlines have also cut forecasts due to fuel cost increases.

What to watch next

American Airlines will report its full 2026 financial results next year.

The background

Airlines often report earnings forecasts reflecting how fuel prices and capacity affect profitability. Fuel is one of the biggest operational costs for airlines.

Questions readers ask

Why did American Airlines lower its 2026 earnings forecast?

American Airlines lowered its 2026 forecast because of a spike in jet fuel prices, which increased fuel costs by 67.5% in the third quarter.

How did American Airlines perform in the third quarter versus expectations?

American Airlines reported $16.34 billion in revenue, slightly above the $16.22 billion expected, and an adjusted loss per share of 28 cents, better than the 35 cents expected.